- Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs): status for CMIP6 , GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT (2020)
- Sensitivity of Arctic Sea Ice Extent to Sea Ice Concentration Threshold Choice and Its Implication to Ice Coverage Decadal Trends and Statistical Projections , REMOTE SENSING (2020)
- Five years of Florida Current structure and transport from the Royal Caribbean Cruise ShipExplorer of the Seas , Journal of Geophysical Research (2008)
- Tidal variations of flow convergence, shear, and stratification at the Rio de la Plata estuary turbidity front , Journal of Geophysical Research (2008)
- On the limiting aerodynamic roughness of the ocean in very strong winds , Geophysical Research Letters (2004)
- Seasonal and interannual studies of vortices in sea surface temperature data , International Journal of Remote Sensing (2004)
Marine air temperature drives climate processes which have far-reaching downstream impacts including an increase in extreme cyclones, sea level rise, and coastal flooding. Monitoring of this important climate indicator is imperative for decision makers and stakeholders to plan climate adaptation and mitigation efforts on local and regional scales: a long-term research goal for NOAA. As a key contributor to the estimation of global mean surface temperature, MAT observations are essential for climate monitoring. High quality MAT data also play a crucial role in understanding air-sea fluxes and its impact on the physical and biological processes in the ocean and coastal system. This project will result in a new observation-based (in situ and satellite) ocean synthesis dataset for climate monitoring and modeling applications. The new high-resolution global MAT dataset will be developed using a state-of-art machine learning framework. The improved spatial and temporal resolution and coverages provided by HIRSMAT will contribute to the associated NOAA objective to improve scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts. Furthermore, the project will increase the use and utility of field campaign data observations (e.g., DYNAMO and ATOMIC) by using them for independent evaluation. The resultant dataset will be provided in an obs4MIPS-compliant format for efficient, ready access by the modeling community to perform comparisons with relevant CMIP6 output variables.
The NOAA Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS) will be formed through a national consortium of academic and nonprofit institutions, with leadership from the University of Maryland College Park (UMCP) and North Carolina State University (NCSU). NCSU's North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (NCICS) will operate the North Carolina arm of CISESS. CISESSÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢ primary objective is to document the natural atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components of the Earth system and how they interact with human activities as a coupled system through collaborative and transformative research activities and to transition that research into operational applications that produce societal benefits. The CISESS ConsortiumÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s main goals are to 1) support the NESDIS mission of providing ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œsecure and timely access to global environmental data and information from satellites and other sources to both promote and protect the NationÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s environment, security, economy, and quality of lifeÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â; 2) promote and augment the research needed to carry out NOAAÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s mission ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã…â€œto understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, to share that knowledge and information with others, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resourcesÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã‚Â; and 3) deliver innovative research products, education, training, and outreach aligned with these missions.
This collaborative project with the University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) will tackle the problem of obtaining state of the art climate data products from several, partially overlapping, geostationary satellites. The proposed research will advance the ÃƒÂ¯Ã‚Â¬Ã‚Âeld of geostatistics by developing probabilistic methods for multivariate, non-stationary ÃƒÂ¯Ã‚Â¬Ã‚Âelds in space and space-time. NCSU will provide the expertise related to applied mathematical methods and knowledge of the remote sensing systems under study as well as the proposed data retrieval methods and processing protocols. The utility of the developed models can be extended to any climate variable derived from a constellation of geostationary satellites. Given that multiple international agencies operate similar instruments focused on viewing diÃƒÂ¯Ã‚Â¬Ã¢â€šÂ¬erent parts of the world, the project will strengthen international cooperation for better Earth system understanding, and leverage the investments in instrumentation to foster global scientiÃƒÂ¯Ã‚Â¬Ã‚Âc know-ledge. This project will showcase the role of computational and data-enabled science as a focus of interdisciplinary activities, displaying the power of statistical inference to produce eÃƒÂ¯Ã‚Â¬Ã¢â€šÂ¬ective tools for environmental studies and climate policy making.
It is well understood that stress on the human body from high temperatures is exacerbated by high humidity. The National Weather Service uses a familiar metric (the heat index) that incorporates temperature and humidity to quantify this effect. However, long-term U.S. monitoring of heat stress indicators relevant to human health has been limited to the period from around the middle of the 20th century to present because of a lack of digitally available humidity data prior to 1948. Extending the availability of heat stress metrics that combine both temperature and humidity over the past century is critically important for providing historical context to current heat wave trends. The Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP)funded the entry of early hourly weather observations going back to the late 19th century. This set of data has never been publicly available but is now being incorporated into the new Global Historical Climatology Network-hourly (GHCNh) of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). This study will provide the scientific basis for new heat wave monitoring products by characterizing, for the first time, the features of heat waves in the contiguous United States over a century-plus time frame that includes the 1930s Dust Bowl era and uses human healthÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“relevant heat metrics that incorporate humidity. This proposal will target the high-priority climate risk area of extreme heat using a dataset that was previously unavailable for climate analysis. It will provide a new monitoring indicator suite (heat index and related metrics and circulation features) extending back to 1895. The longer period of analysis, encompassing the epic 1930s heat waves, will advance understanding about recent trends in heat waves and the nature of multidecadal variability.
Accurate measurement and accounting of global precipitation is an essential prerequisite to carry out global drought monitoring, and it is equally critical for gauging initial conditions for drought forecasting (as well as validation). The Global Drought Information System (GDIS) follows the World Meteorological Organization (2012) recommendation of converting the precipitation into Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). This project would provide both a comprehensive, state of the art global precipitation archive and a global archive for drought monitoring. Drought indices, such as SPI are a measure or proxy comparing the current availability of water relative to long-term water availability for that month or time period across a long term time record. Most of the deployed drought monitoring tools, including drought indices, used around the world evaluate broad scale conditionsÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Âat, for example, large tracts of one degree latitude and longitude (as found in the case of GermanyÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation archive). The European Commission Joint Research Centre Global Drought Observatory (GDO) is an example of this, carrying out drought monitoring over one geographical degree squares. However, details of fine resolution, local drought conditions are needed, both for residents within these areas and for documentation of drought patterns across the terrestrial globe, to analyze patterns of global warming and drought. This project upgrades the spatial resolution over which precipitation is measured globally, while at the same time, modernizing the pipeline of providing precipitation to overcome legacy quality control issues and latency issues (bringing drought monitoring to near real time (NRT) conditions, dispensing with, for example, the time delay of a month, commonly encountered when using GPCC precipitation for regional or global drought monitoring.
Kelvin waves and easterly waves are among the most prominent modes of synoptic-scale convective variability in the tropics. Recent studies suggest that interactions between these waves can lead to tropical cyclogenesis. However, many questions remain regarding how these waves affect one another and how cyclogenesis ensues. The most significant ways that Kelvin waves might affect easterly waves relate to their modulation of low-level winds, which may alter the background shear and gradient of vorticity and enhance wave-mean flow interaction. The Kelvin wave westerlies could also enhance surface enthalpy fluxes within the easterly wave, which would lead to intensification through diabatic heating. While the kinematic view of the interaction appears simple, the inherent dynamics are expected to be complex and nonlinear. The imminent launch of the CYGNSS constellation of satellites will provide an unprecedented opportunity to observe and model these interactions. The high spatial and temporal resolution of CYGNSS is ideally suited for studying Kelvin waves and easterly waves. They have a phase speed of ~20 m sÃƒÂ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢1 relative to one another and each have wavelengths of just 2000ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“4000 km. The proposed research aligns clearly with NASA objectives by leveraging CYGNSS data to investigate this important problem. Case studies from the first year of CYGNSS data will be compared with climatological composites from MERRA-2 and TRMM/GPM. This investigation will identify the evolution of surface winds and enthalpy fluxes in Kelvin and easterly waves separately as well as during interactions between them. The role of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) in mediating the interaction will also be investigated. The final phase of this project will use idealized simulations of the interactions between Kelvin waves and easterly waves. These simulations will shed light into the causal relationships between changes in the surface winds and fluxes derived from CYGNSS observations and changes in the amplitude of easterly waves. Particular focus will be placed effect of moisture and vorticity advections as well as surface energy fluxes.
Elevated risk for suicide among rural populations in the U.S. is well-established. Suicide rates in most rural settings are nearly double those found in most urban locations, and this gap is widening among adolescents. Several possible explanations for this have been proposed, including limited availability of mental health services in rural regions, low acceptability of professional help-seeking (e.g., stigma), social isolation, socioeconomic factors, and access to lethal means. The objective of this study is to identify geographic differences in individual and community-level risk factors for adolescent suicides (ages 10 to 24) and suicide ideation, with a particular focus on rural disparities and suicide mechanisms (e.g., lethal means). Results will inform a comprehensive training for suicide prevention in high schools identified as geographic hot spots of risk in the state of NC. This study will address a notable gap in suicide research by assessing the feasibility of employing geospatial analytics to identify high-risk geographic clusters of suicide and suicide-related mental health outcomes in vulnerable adolescent populations. More specifically, the project will address the following aims: 1) Perform a scoping review to map the state of the evidence on socio-environmental factors driving suicide risks in adolescents, with a particular focus on rural America. 2) Identify spatial clusters of suicide, suicide ideation, access to lethal means, methods of suicide death, and underlying mental health conditions across the rural-urban gradient. 3) Characterize individual and community-level factors associated with geographic hotspots of elevated suicide risk. 4) Recommend strategies for enhanced school-based suicide prevention training for adolescents in the hardest-hit rural communities. North Carolina State University will provide expertise in modelling and biostatistics in epidemiology as part of the interdisciplinary project team conducting this research.
Health departments and healthcare professionals need reliable information to effectively prepare and warn constituents of pending natural and biological threats caused by drought. However, drought warning systems are currently limited as public health officials are just starting to investigate drought human health impacts. To address this issue, a collaborative, multi-institution team of investigators will assess the relationship between drought indicators and health outcomes to assist health officials to develop effective warning systems. It is expected that drought related health outcomes will be unique for different regions of the United States due to population (e.g. race/ethnicity, age groups, occupation, rural or urban status, and access to existing health care) drought severity disparities. The proposed study will evaluate multiple drought indices to identify potential regional health outcomes across the U.S. These findings will benefit public health professionals or emergency planners by showing utility for certain drought indicators in predicting health outcomes and enable the production of regionally based specialized messaging for at-risk populations. Findings will be synthesized to specific regions [e.g. Drought Early-Warning Systems (DEWS) and Climate Division regions] of the United States to assist with dissemination. NCSU scientists will provide climate science and climate data analysis expertise in support of the project objectives.
The nation's water supplies and water suppliers, including public utilities and state and federal agencies, are disproportionately exposed to the risks of climate change. The industry is shifting unsteadily from management practices based on expectations of historical norms to an era of acknowledged uncertain climate conditions and unknown vulnerabilities. As a result, the nation's ability to provide safe and secure water is at risk. The goal of this multi-institutional NSF Convergent Accelerator Phase I project is to form a collaboration network to serve as the foundation for the conceptual design, development and sharing of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) tools for quantifying America's water supply risk. The project will converge data, models, and insight from water suppliers and the fields of climate science, hydrology, economics, social sciences, data science, and decision analysis to develop new information and tools that enable comprehensive and transformative investigations into the dynamics, evolution, and trajectory of water demand and supply. NCSU will lead the project climate science and the development of climate change scenarios.
The MaddenÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the largest source of tropical intraseasonal variability with impacts spanning the globe. Unfortunately, numerical models fail to adequately simulate its convection, limiting their opportunity to harness its long-range predictability. Nowhere is this shortcoming more apparent than over the Maritime Continent (MC). Many MJO events terminate before crossing the MC, a tendency that is exaggerated in most numerical models. The MC poses complex topography that may reduce the MJOÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s moisture source from surface fluxes and impede the MJOÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s low-level circulation. The exceptional diurnal cycles in the vicinity of the large islands in the MC can also drain the MJOÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s energy. Most models fail to capture this diurnal cycle properly and result in large biases in rainfall over the MC. Many studies have examined the interactions between the MJO and convection over the MC. Far fewer have looked at the role of convectively coupled equatorial waves, even though models that faithfully represent these waves also tend to produce more representative MJO signals. The proposed study will identify avenues for model improvement by investigating the interactions between the MJO, equatorial waves, and the diurnal cycle over the MC. It will be conducted in two intertwined branches that will each complement a major international field campaign, the Year of Maritime Convection, proposed for 2017-2018. The first branch will identify the MJO and equatorial waves using Fourier filtering of GPM IMERG data. These data will be used to identify the modulation of the diurnal cycle in GPM IMERG by equatorial waves. They will also be compared with TRMM and geostationary satellite datasets that identify convective cloud populations. These results will show differences in the interactions between equatorial waves and convection over the MC during MJO events that cross the MC barrier with those that do not. The second branch will compare these observational results with reforecast data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR). It will test a novel approach for combining observed GPM IMERG data with CFSRR forecasts to identify the MJO and equatorial waves. With this method, it is hypothesized that the model can predict the convective envelope of the MJO and equatorial waves better than it can forecast the individual convective elements. The results will also be used to identify differences in the equatorial wave state over the MC that might lead to more or less skillful forecasts of the MJO.